Rising Tide

Taking Jaggedness Seriously

Why we should expect AI capabilities to keep being extremely uneven, and why that matters

Nov 24, 2025 • Helen Toner

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July 2025

Personalized AI is rerunning the worst part of social media's playbook

The incentives, risks, and complications of AI that knows you

Jul 21, 2025 • Miranda Bogen

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June 2025

Unresolved debates about the future of AI

How far the current paradigm can go, AI improving AI, and whether thinking of AI as a tool will keep making sense

Jun 30, 2025 • Helen Toner

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Building supercomputers for autocrats probably isn’t good for democracy, actually

The shameless spin around Stargate UAE

Jun 6, 2025 • Helen Toner

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May 2025

In search of a dynamist vision for safe superhuman AI

Embracing creativity, risk-taking, and competition while staying clear-eyed about risks

May 12, 2025 • Helen Toner

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April 2025

2 big questions for AI progress in 2025-2026

On how good AI might—or might not—get at tasks beyond math & coding

Apr 23, 2025 • Helen Toner

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Nonproliferation is the wrong approach to AI misuse

Making the most of “adaptation buffers” is a more realistic and less authoritarian strategy

Apr 5, 2025 • Helen Toner

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The core challenge of AI alignment is “steerability”

"Steered to where" is a different question from "steerable at all"

Apr 3, 2025 • Helen Toner

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"Long" timelines to advanced AI have gotten crazy short

The prospect of reaching human-level AI in the 2030s should be jarring

Apr 1, 2025 • Helen Toner

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